FC Seoul 3-0 Bucheon FC 1995 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 46%, yet in-form Bucheon FC 1995 provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Seoul welcome Bucheon FC 1995 to Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Seoul stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Seoul's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC Seoul are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 2 games, Bucheon FC 1995 have recorded 2W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bucheon FC 1995 are 2.10 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.32 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.190 / defence 0.822 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.833 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.139. Data: built from FC Seoul's last 41 games and Bucheon FC 1995's last 8.
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 46% | Draw 34% | Bucheon FC 1995 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.16 | Draw 2.90 | Bucheon FC 1995 5.22. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bucheon FC 1995 (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (FC Seoul's last 10 home games and Bucheon FC 1995's last 2 games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 46% | Draw 34% | Bucheon FC 1995 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG FC Seoul 1.32 / Bucheon FC 1995 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.190 / def 0.822 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.833 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 FAQs
What time does FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995?
FC Seoul 3 - 0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Where is FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 46% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Seoul and Bucheon FC 1995 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (1.19) and Bucheon FC 1995's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bucheon FC 1995's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Seoul's last 41 games and Bucheon FC 1995's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
46%
2.16
34%
2.90
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.10
0.78
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
2.16
46%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
5%
19.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.78 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Seoul come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L.
On the other side, Bucheon FC 1995 sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five.
Bucheon FC 1995 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Seoul are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Seoul have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Early Season
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
FC Seoul (Home) vs Bucheon FC 1995 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Seoul
Early Season
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
❓ FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 Form FAQs
What form are FC Seoul and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have FC Seoul or Bucheon FC 1995 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bucheon FC 1995 in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2026. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Seoul have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won FC Seoul 3-0 Bucheon FC 1995.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Bucheon FC 1995 specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
0
Draws
0
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Bucheon FC 1995?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Seoul have won 3, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2026: FC Seoul 1-0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Bucheon FC 1995?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Seoul and Bucheon FC 1995 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Seoul's games and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Seoul and Bucheon FC 1995 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Seoul's matches and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's.
Dominant FC Seoul run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bucheon FC 1995.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Bucheon FC 1995 3-0 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.32 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 0.78 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.19 / defence 0.82 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 46% | Draw 34% | Bucheon FC 1995 19%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 100%, Bucheon FC 1995 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with FC Seoul winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Seoul scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.