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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Group - 38 as Daegu FC welcome FC Anyang to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 05:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Anyang's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 1.80 (FC Anyang). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Daegu FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Anyang in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Daegu FC, 2 for FC Anyang and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2025, ended 0–4 with FC Anyang winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Daegu FC trading profile (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

FC Anyang trading profile (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daegu FC 70% and FC Anyang 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 65% | FC Anyang 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.46 xG and FC Anyang 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.989 / defence 1.154 | FC Anyang attack 0.818 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.226. Data: 66 Daegu FC games / 33 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | FC Anyang 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 70% | FC Anyang 60% BTTS from recent games.

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