Jeju United FC 2-3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Jeju United FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.60 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Jeju United FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 45% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 47% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.52 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.069 / defence 0.885 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.992 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.166. Data: 34 Jeju United FC games / 34 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 49% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.00. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jeju United FC 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 49% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Jeju United FC 1.52 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.069 / def 0.885 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.992 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeju United FC 2 - 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 49% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Jeju United FC 2W | Draws 0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (1.07) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.89
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.55
1.02
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.02 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 15W 4D 19L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 18W 9D 11L from 38 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.29 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (11W 1D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Jeju United FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 15W 4D 19L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.79 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
4
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 37%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Jeju United FC) and 47% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 32%; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Jeju United FC 2-3 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.52 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 49% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 47%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.29 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.