Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Daegu FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Daegu FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Wednesday 4 August 2021 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Form

Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 5W 4D 1L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.

Daegu FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 4W 2D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.56 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.56 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Daegu FC arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Trading

Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Daegu FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Daegu FC 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.41 xG and Daegu FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.234 / defence 1.281 | Daegu FC attack 0.872 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 0.933 / away 1.354. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 20 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Daegu FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Daegu FC 56%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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