Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Daegu FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Daegu FC arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Daegu FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 0 for Daegu FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Daegu FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 xG and Daegu FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.085 / defence 0.966 | Daegu FC attack 1.081 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Daegu FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Daegu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 / Daegu FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.085 / def 0.966 | Daegu FC attack 1.081 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Daegu FC xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 40% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 1 | Daegu FC 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (1.08x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.58
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.18
Daegu FC xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.18 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 42W 17D 13L from 72 games, a 1.99 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 29D 21L across 72 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 22W 8D 5L from 35 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 8W 15D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 42W 17D 13L in their last 72 games (1.99 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 22W 29D 21L in their last 72 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.11 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
0
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, Daegu FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 69% for Daegu FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 51% (Daegu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 69% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 51% of Daegu FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Championship Round - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 xG and Daegu FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Daegu FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Daegu FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 32%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%, Daegu FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Daegu FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.