Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Asan Mugunghwa defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asan Mugunghwa beat Daegu FC 4-3 at Cheonan Baekseok Stadium, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asan Mugunghwa 1.09 xG and Daegu FC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Asan Mugunghwa beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Daegu FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 0/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asan Mugunghwa 28% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 45%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Asan Mugunghwa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights