Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Asan Mugunghwa's attack at 0.85x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (1.02x) against Asan Mugunghwa's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 0/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
28%
3.51
26%
3.80
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Asan Mugunghwa xG
Total xG
2.53
1.44
Daegu FC xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Asan Mugunghwa and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Asan Mugunghwa and 1.44 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.