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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Taawon 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 1-2 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.08 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.97 / defence 0.76, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 43%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.49. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights