Al-Fayha 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 4D 5L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 2.10 PPG clear of Al-Fayha in recent Pro League fixtures (3.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fayha lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 50% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.73 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.695 / defence 1.179 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.635 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.394. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.635 — the away xG of 2.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Al-Fayha games / 48 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 7% | Draw 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 78%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 14.29 | Draw 7.14 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 7% | Draw 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 78% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Fayha 0.73 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.695 / def 1.179 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.635 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
2.69
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
49%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 December 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Fayha 0 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 7% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 78% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.64x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 2.69.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.8%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.6%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
7%
13.42
14%
7.05
78%
1.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.42
2.69
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
13.42
7%
Home win
7.05
14%
Draw
1.28
78%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
7%
14.70
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
1%
197.35
38%
2.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 2.69 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 12W 16D 20L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 33W 10D 5L across 48 games — 2.27 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 5W 9D 9L from 23 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 15W 5D 3L across 23 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.31 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 12W 16D 20L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 33W 10D 5L in their last 48 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.04 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 39%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Fayha) and 52% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 52%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 35% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fayha 0-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.73 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.69 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.69 / defence 1.18 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.64 / defence 0.69, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 7% | Draw 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 78%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.