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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Shabab and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Al Shabab and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.46 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Al-Fateh attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 48% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 30%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 55%, Al-Fateh 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.47 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights