🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Riyadh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Riyadh beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.68 / defence 0.94 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 24% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 48%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al Riyadh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 52%, Al-Ittihad FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights