🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al-Fateh 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.26 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Al-Fateh attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Fateh 35%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 55%, Al-Fateh 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.94 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights