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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Riyadh 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Riyadh 0-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.62 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.46 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.71 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.06 / defence 0.59, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 15% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights