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Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out NEOM 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat NEOM 1-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.10 xG and NEOM 0.89 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. NEOM landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.75 against NEOM attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% | Draw 21% | NEOM 14%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%, NEOM 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

NEOM's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights