Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al Shabab to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the edge — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Shabab in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al Shabab and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% and Al Shabab 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 67% | Al Shabab 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.33 xG and Al Shabab 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.131 / defence 0.884 | Al Shabab attack 0.767 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.309. Data: 39 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 39 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Al Shabab 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al Shabab 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.33 / Al Shabab 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.131 / def 0.884 | Al Shabab attack 0.767 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al Shabab xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 December 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 44% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.13x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
44%
2.26
33%
2.99
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.21
0.89
Al Shabab xG
2.26
44%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.89 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 27W 8D 4L from 39 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 17L across 39 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Shabab heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 12W 6D 1L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 2W 9D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.26 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 27W 8D 4L in their last 39 games (2.28 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 14D 17L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Shabab have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2026, when Al Shabab 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%, Al Shabab 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 26% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al Shabab in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 47% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 26% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.