Al-Fayha vs NEOM – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours NEOM (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face NEOM.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host NEOM at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, NEOM have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. NEOM are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fayha, 2 for NEOM and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with NEOM winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
NEOM in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus NEOM 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 54% | NEOM 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.05 xG and NEOM 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.970 / defence 1.083 | NEOM attack 0.930 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. NEOM's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Al-Fayha games / 43 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 34% | NEOM 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | NEOM 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEOM at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEOM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | NEOM 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 34% | NEOM 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Fayha 1.05 / NEOM 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.970 / def 1.083 | NEOM attack 0.930 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: NEOM (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.40
NEOM xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Fayha vs NEOM is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 December 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs NEOM part of?
Al-Fayha vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 25% chance of winning, NEOM a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Fayha and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and NEOM?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | NEOM 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and NEOM in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. NEOM (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.97x the league average against NEOM's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NEOM's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
25%
4.07
34%
2.90
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.45
1.40
NEOM xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
6%
16.46
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.40 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 12D 20L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEOM sit at 1.42 PPG from 43 outings (17W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.05 PPG, NEOM on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 7W 8D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, NEOM have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.33 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
NEOM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 12D 20L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while NEOM have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or NEOM away?
NEOM's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.38 PPG; NEOM away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and NEOM runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEOM go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
2
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and NEOM?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, NEOM have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when NEOM 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and NEOM?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 57%, NEOM 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Fayha) and 38% (NEOM).
On the defensive side: NEOM in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Fayha's games and 57% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 38% of NEOM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and NEOM tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, NEOM in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.