Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 2.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 61% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.19 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.181 / defence 1.011 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.395 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.337. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Al-Ittihad FC games / 41 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 21% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.96. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 21% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.19 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.181 / def 1.011 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.395 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 21% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.18) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
21%
4.76
28%
3.51
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.89
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
3%
31.38
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.89 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 41 games, going 21W 9D 11L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.27 PPG from 41 outings (28W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 12W 2D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.35 points per game from 20 outings (15W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.41 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 66%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 games (1.76 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 28W 9D 4L in their last 41 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.90 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 70% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.