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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab finished level at 2-2 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 xG and Al Shabab 0.91 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.74 against Al Shabab attack 0.87 / defence 0.85, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 19%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Shabab's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights