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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ettifaq 4-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.68 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Ettifaq 16%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%, Al-Ettifaq 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights