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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.19 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.17 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 37%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights