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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.07 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.92 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.64 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.00 / defence 0.56, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 38% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.12 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights