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Dominant Al-Fayha run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 0-5 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.56 xG and Al-Fayha 1.74 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.81 / defence 1.38 against Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 41%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 52%, Al-Fayha 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.81 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights