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Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al-Fateh 2.11 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.74 / defence 1.52 against Al-Fateh attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 56%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 52%, Al-Fateh 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.78 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights