Al Okhdood 4-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 53%, yet in-form Abha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Okhdood vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Abha make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Al Okhdood (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Okhdood have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Abha's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Abha's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Abha are 0.60 PPG clear of Al Okhdood over their recent games (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Abha's last 10 away games) — Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Abha in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Al Okhdood, 1 for Abha and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Al Okhdood 2–3 Abha — a Abha win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Abha — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 46% versus Abha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 57% | Abha 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 2.12 xG and Abha 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.838 / defence 1.242 | Abha attack 0.801 / defence 1.794. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.433. Abha's defence rating of 1.794 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Okhdood's projected output up. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Abha's projected output up. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 28 games and Abha's last 58.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 53% | Draw 22% | Abha 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 1.89 | Draw 4.59 | Abha 3.96. Al Okhdood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.12 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Okhdood as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Abha (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Abha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 60% (last 10 home games) | Abha 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 53% | Draw 22% | Abha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Al Okhdood 2.12 / Abha 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.838 / def 1.242 | Abha attack 0.801 / def 1.794 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Abha xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Abha FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Abha kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Abha kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Abha?
Al Okhdood 4 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Abha part of?
Al Okhdood vs Abha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 53% chance of winning, Abha a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Okhdood and Abha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Okhdood vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.84) and Abha's defence rating (1.79), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.80x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 28 games and Abha's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.59
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.54
1.43
Abha xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
3%
32.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Abha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.43 for Abha, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 7W 3D 18L from 28 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 17L across 28 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Al Okhdood against 0.89 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 5W 0D 9L from their last 14 home games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Abha's away record stands at 0W 2D 12L across their last 14 away games, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Okhdood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.11 scored and 2.64 conceded.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Current Season
Abha
Current Season
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Abha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Current Season
Abha
Current Season
❓ Al Okhdood vs Abha Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 7W 3D 18L in their last 28 games (0.86 PPG), while Abha have gone 7W 4D 17L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Abha away?
Al Okhdood's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.07 PPG; Abha away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Al Okhdood and Abha, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Abha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Abha?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 1, Abha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Abha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Al Okhdood 4-0 Abha.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 50%, Abha 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al Okhdood and 79% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 29% of games; Abha in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Abha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Abha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 57% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Okhdood and Abha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al Okhdood's matches and 79% of Abha's.
Do Al Okhdood and Abha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 79% of Abha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Okhdood run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Abha 4-0 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 2.12 xG and Abha 1.43 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Okhdood beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Abha attack 0.80 / defence 1.79, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 53% | Draw 22% | Abha 25%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 57%, Abha 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Abha's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.86 PPG, Abha 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.