Al Shabab 5-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Al Shabab welcome Abha to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 18 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al Shabab) versus 1.10 (Abha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 2 for Abha and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Abha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Abha trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 51% versus Abha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Abha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.57 xG and Abha 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.116 / defence 1.071 | Abha attack 0.891 / defence 1.649. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.440. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.649 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Al Shabab games / 57 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 63% | Draw 19% | Abha 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Abha 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.57 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.94 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Abha 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 63% | Draw 19% | Abha 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG Al Shabab 2.57 / Abha 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.116 / def 1.071 | Abha attack 0.891 / def 1.649 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Abha xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Abha kick off?
Al Shabab vs Abha kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 18 April 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Abha?
Al Shabab 5 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al Shabab vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Abha part of?
Al Shabab vs Abha is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 63% chance of winning, Abha a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Shabab and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Abha?
Record (5 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 1 | Abha 2W.
What form are Al Shabab and Abha in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Abha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.12) and Abha's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 2.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.33
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.94
1.37
Abha xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
8%
13.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
1%
70.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.37 for Abha, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 25W 13D 19L from 57 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 33L across 57 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Shabab by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 15W 5D 8L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Abha's away record stands at 3W 2D 23L across 28 trips, a 0.39 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.12 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 25W 13D 19L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while Abha have gone 17W 7D 33L in their last 57 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Abha away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.79 PPG; Abha away: 0.39 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Abha in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2024, when Al Shabab won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Shabab
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 3, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2024, when Al Shabab 5-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Abha?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 43%, Abha 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al Shabab and 68% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Abha in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 54% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al Shabab's matches and 68% of Abha's.
Do Al Shabab and Abha tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Abha in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Abha 5-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.57 xG and Abha 1.37 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Abha attack 0.89 / defence 1.65, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 63% | Draw 19% | Abha 18%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Abha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Abha's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.