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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.84 xG and Al-Fateh 0.81 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Al-Fateh attack 0.73 / defence 1.63, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 79% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 8%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 74%, Al-Fateh 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights