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Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.60 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.93 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Nassr fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.42 / defence 0.79 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 73% | Draw 16% | Al-Ettifaq 11%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights