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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.47 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.10 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.74 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.06 / defence 0.72, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.29 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights