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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Najma and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Al Najma and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.94 xG and Al Riyadh 1.71 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Najma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.93 / defence 1.37 against Al Riyadh attack 0.86 / defence 1.36, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 43% | Draw 23% | Al Riyadh 34%, with Al Najma to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 65%, Al Riyadh 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 0.65 PPG against 0.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights