🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Okhdood cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al Najma 1-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.51 xG and Al Okhdood 1.25 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Okhdood outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.83 / defence 1.42 against Al Okhdood attack 0.64 / defence 1.22, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 42% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 31%, with Al Najma to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Okhdood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 65%, Al Okhdood 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Najma 0.35 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights