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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Najma defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Najma beat Al Kholood 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.22 xG and Al Kholood 2.12 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.89 / defence 1.36 against Al Kholood attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 21% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 58%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Al Najma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 60%, Al Kholood 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Al Kholood's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Kholood arrived the stronger side — 0.95 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Al Najma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights