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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Najma and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Najma and Al-Fateh finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.38 xG and Al-Fateh 1.67 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.99 / defence 1.38 against Al-Fateh attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 32% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 44%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 71%, Al-Fateh 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights