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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al Najma host Al-Fateh at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026 at 13:40 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Najma have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al Najma have gone 0W 1D 5L this season (6 games, 0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Fateh — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fateh — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

In-Play Data

Al Najma trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Al-Fateh trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 71% and Al-Fateh 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 71% | Al-Fateh 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.38 xG and Al-Fateh 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.992 / defence 1.375 | Al-Fateh attack 0.857 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.419. Data: 14 Al Najma games / 48 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Najma 32% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fateh 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 67% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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