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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 xG and Al-Nassr 2.01 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Al-Nassr attack 1.47 / defence 0.74, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 56%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 63%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights