🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Khaleej Saihat cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Najma 3-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 2.14 xG and Al Najma 1.11 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Al Najma attack 0.70 / defence 1.46, drawn from 62/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 61% | Draw 20% | Al Najma 19%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 66%, Al Najma 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Al Najma's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Khaleej Saihat arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights