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Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.62 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.39 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 32%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 63%, Al-Ettifaq 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights