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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 xG and Al-Hazm 0.76 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.72 against Al-Hazm attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 19%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 46%, Al-Hazm 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights