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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Fayha 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.66 xG and Al-Fayha 0.79 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.79 against Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 17%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 57%, Al-Fayha 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights