Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Raed 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 3-2 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.38 xG and Al-Raed 0.96 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Raed outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.55 / defence 0.81 against Al-Raed attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 18% | Al-Raed 14%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72%, Al-Raed 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Raed's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.76 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights