Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.55x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.67
14%
7.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.34
0.96
Al-Raed xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.67
18%
Draw
7.37
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
9%
10.82
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
1%
79.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.96 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.