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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 1-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.15 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.82 / defence 1.64 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Ittihad FC 71%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 64%, Al-Ittihad FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights