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Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al-Fayha 2-0 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.53 xG and Al-Fayha 1.81 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.88 / defence 1.31 against Al-Fayha attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 27/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 33% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 45%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 63%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.15 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights