Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC Prediction & Preview

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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Hazm face Al-Faisaly FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Al-Hazm host Al-Faisaly FC at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Hazm — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Hazm have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Faisaly FC's away record over their last 6 away games: 1W 2D 3L (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Al-Hazm) versus 1.00 (Al-Faisaly FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 1 for Al-Faisaly FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Sep 2026, ended Al-Hazm 0–0 Al-Faisaly FC — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 67% and Al-Faisaly FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.78 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.943 / defence 1.092 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.800 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.478. Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hazm's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 46 games and Al-Faisaly FC's last 12.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 47% | Draw 27% | Al-Faisaly FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.14 | Draw 3.65 | Al-Faisaly FC 3.88. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al-Faisaly FC's last 6 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 0.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Faisaly FC 67% (last 6 away games).

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