Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Hazm to Al Taawon Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al Taawon Arena, Al Taawon have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taawon 0.90 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Taawon register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al Taawon, 1 for Al-Hazm and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Hazm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 63% and Al-Hazm 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al-Hazm 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.19 xG and Al-Hazm 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.723 / defence 0.797 | Al-Hazm attack 1.010 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Al Taawon's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Al Taawon games / 38 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 35% | Draw 33% | Al-Hazm 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Hazm 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Hazm 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 35% | Draw 33% | Al-Hazm 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Taawon 1.19 / Al-Hazm 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.723 / def 0.797 | Al-Hazm attack 1.010 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al-Hazm xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 18 March 2027 at Al Taawon Arena.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 35% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al Taawon 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.72) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
35%
2.85
33%
3.05
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.33
1.13
Al-Hazm xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.13 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 15W 10D 13L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.45 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 7D 8L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.13 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.47 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Taawon
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 58%, Al-Hazm 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Taawon) and 58% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al Taawon's games and 63% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Taawon's recent games and 58% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.