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Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al-Fayha 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Fayha 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.46 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 45%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights