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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 1-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.04 xG and Al-Nassr 1.85 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Al-Nassr attack 1.46 / defence 0.75, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 55%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights