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Dominant Al-Fayha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al Najma 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.54 xG and Al Najma 0.76 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Al Najma attack 0.58 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 55% | Draw 27% | Al Najma 18%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 53%, Al Najma 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Najma's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.26. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Al Najma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights