Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al Kholood 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.22 xG and Al Kholood 1.33 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.02 against Al Kholood attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 39%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 40%, Al Kholood 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Kholood's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG, Al Kholood 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights