Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.76
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.56
1.33
Al Kholood xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.33 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.