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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.78 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 26%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 48%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights